Five Tests for Managing Victoria’s Machete Crime Crisis

By Scott Thompson

Victoria has seen a sharp rise in machete and knife-related violence over the past year. More than a dozen high-profile incidents — many involving young people — have occurred in shopping centres, parks, suburban streets and service stations. Some have resulted in serious injury or death. These events have dominated media coverage, driven community concern, and heightened perceptions that public safety is at risk.

So, will the Victorian Government’s announcement today of a ban on the sale of machetes from 28 May following its existing plan to ban possession from 1 September 2025 deliver real outcomes, or just manage shorter-term perception?

Based on behavioural economics, public sentiment and global experience, here are five strategic tests that will determine whether the government’s approach will reduce harm or simply calm headlines.

1. Salience vs Substance

Behavioural economics tells us that fear often drives symbolic action. When violent events are widely reported, people perceive the risk as higher than it is — a phenomenon known as the availability heuristic. While the machete ban is likely to be popular, the real measure of success will be whether it addresses root causes of violence or simply reassures the public.

2. Enforcement Equity

International examples — particularly in the UK and US — show that uneven enforcement of knife bans can damage trust, especially among culturally diverse communities. In multicultural Victoria, ensuring the policy is applied fairly will be essential. Communication must reinforce that this is a safety measure — not a cultural or societal targeting tool.

3. Trust and Transparency

Public satisfaction with Victoria Police has fallen from 75% in 2022–23 to 52% in 2024–25. To rebuild confidence, the community needs to see a plan, not just a crackdown. Government must clearly explain what the ban does, why it matters, and how it fits within a broader safety strategy. Visible investment in prevention, such as early intervention, youth engagement and support services working together, will demonstrate that this is about long-term impact, not short-term politics.

4. Prevention vs Substitution

When one weapon is restricted, offenders often adapt. Without investment in youth diversion, education and support programs, we risk simply shifting the method of violence. The machete ban must be one part of a broader, better-resourced violence prevention framework.

5. The Long Game

Singapore has shown that cultural change around weapon-carrying is possible — but it takes sustained public education, clear norms, and consistent enforcement. Victoria must be prepared to commit beyond the policy announcement and lead a whole-of-community approach to safety.

Conclusion

The government’s machete ban is a decisive first step. But managing a crisis takes more than legislation — it takes leadership, strategy and the ability to build trust over time. Whether this becomes a turning point or a missed opportunity depends on what comes next.

Because this isn’t just about machetes — it’s about whether Victorians believe their government can keep them safe.